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Don’t Sleep on India
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by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:
I’ve just returned from a two-week visit to India. The above epigram was offered by several of my guides on different occasions. It captures the essence of India perfectly.
Many people are completely put off at the thought of visiting India or are repelled when they get there. They focus on the dirt, air pollution, smells, overcrowding, swarms of beggars and street vendors, cars honking in the cities and lack of sanitation in the countryside. Their delicate western palates are no match for the spicy Indian cuisine (normal) and the super-spicy version (readily available). That’s all true.
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Others (myself included) love India. I first visited over 40 years ago. Some of the complaints are just life in a developing economy. You’ll find noise and pollution from Santiago to Saigon (and not that long ago in Los Angeles). The smells are often delightful scents of spice and incense. The crowds are dressed in saris and silks that have hues of red, blue and saffron you won’t find anywhere else in the world.
Honking is actually encouraged (to a point) as a way to let the driver ahead know you are overtaking. Traffic lanes have been obliterated or are simply ignored on most city boulevards. It’s every driver for himself but that just adds to the buzz and excitement. It seems chaotic but drivers actually do pay attention and avoid crashes if only barely. As for the food, I couldn’t get enough of it. When waiters warned me of the heat quotient, I told them to bring it on. They politely smiled and made sure I got the hottest dishes available.
Too Big to Ignore
It’s really the third part of the epigram that hits home. Regardless of your view, you cannot ignore India in any geopolitical analysis or portfolio allocation. India has the largest population of any country in the world at 1.4 billion people (having recently surpassed China). India has the seventh largest landmass of any country after Russia, Canada, China, the U.S., Brazil and Australia. It is one of only nine countries in the world with nuclear weapons. It shares borders with China and Pakistan, both nuclear powers.
While India is smaller than China, it has ample arable land to feed its population. China is mostly desert, mountains or high plateau none of which are suitable for agriculture. Much of China is at latitudes of 45° N or higher (Manchuria) and is also too cold most of the year to grow food. The Chinese Han heartland in the southeastern third of the country is the rice basket, but China still imports enormous quantities of food.
In contrast, India stretches from the tropics (Kerala is 8° N) to the Himalayas (New Delhi is 29° N), most of which consists of prime agricultural climate and soil. India is an agricultural powerhouse – it imports almost no food, growing all it needs. It’s also a technology powerhouse as home to tech giants like Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Cognizant and Wipro. Yes, by every measure India is too big to ignore.
My visit was not confined to the monumental temples and luxury hotels. I walked the streets and ghats of Varanasi with millions of pilgrims there to put the Ganges River to sleep and wake it the next morning. I spent time with locals in Dharavi, sometimes called the world’s largest slum although Indians take offense at the word slum. (That said, Dharavi was the filming location for the Bollywood-style film Slumdog Millionaire, which won the Oscar for Best Picture in 2008).
Dharavi is about one-square mile in the heart of Bombay with a population of about one million people. That population density of one million per square mile makes it one of the most densely populated places in the world.
Poor But Bustling
The dirt, lack of sanitation and unsafe working conditions in Dharavi were undeniable. Still, what impressed me most was the sheer energy of the place. Thousands of small businesses, including many manufacturing operations, were thriving. They were all hole-in-the-wall arrangements. Labor costs were minimal, regulation almost non-existent and many appeared unsafe with open fires, exposed machinery and dark working conditions. Remarkably, it is estimated that annual revenues from the businesses in Dharavi exceed $1 billion.
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