Home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose (again) in September (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic's Case Shiller index) but at a slower pace than expected (+0.18% MoM vs +0.3% exp vs +0.33% prior)...
Source: Bloomberg
That left home prices up 4.57% YoY (below the 4.7% expected and the slowest annual pace since Sept 2023.
“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets.
“The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.”
West Coast cities are seeing home price growth slowing fast with Seattle, San Diego, LA, San Francisco, and Portland all seeing home price declines on a MoM basis...
Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates increased during that period, and dipped since (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well...
Source: Bloomberg
However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)...
Source: Bloomberg
Which suggests the pace of home price appreciation is set to slow further from here...
Home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose (again) in September (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic's Case Shiller index) but at a slower pace than expected (+0.18% MoM vs +0.3% exp vs +0.33% prior)...
Source: Bloomberg
That left home prices up 4.57% YoY (below the 4.7% expected and the slowest annual pace since Sept 2023.
“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets.
“The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.”
West Coast cities are seeing home price growth slowing fast with Seattle, San Diego, LA, San Francisco, and Portland all seeing home price declines on a MoM basis...
Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates increased during that period, and dipped since (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well...
Source: Bloomberg
However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)...
Source: Bloomberg
Which suggests the pace of home price appreciation is set to slow further from here...