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(READ) FBI called out for misinformation during presidential election
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Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) sent letters demanding accountability from the FBI over inaccurate national crime statistics.
After initially claiming violent crime decreased 1.7% in 2022 versus 2021, Grassley revealed that the FBI, “like a thief in the night,” quietly revised its figures to reflect a 4.5% increase in crime in 2022. Grassley is raising questions about how the FBI gathers its crime data and why the timing of its release and correction was so suspect.
The FBI’s original incorrect data was cited by the Kamala Harris presidential campaign and used to “fact-check” President Trump during an ABC News presidential debate. Meanwhile, the FBI remained silent on its inaccuracy. Grassley is now demanding to know why.
The FBI has yet to retract its October 2023 press release highlighting the false data.
“It is also concerning that as of the date of this letter the FBI’s 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics press release in October 2023 still contains the inaccurate statistics that ‘national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021.’ It appears the FBI is pushing misinformation to the public. With the recent release of the FBI’s 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics, the FBI must provide assurances to the American people that this information is complete, accurate, and reliable.”
– Sen. Chuck Grassley
Read Grassley’s full letters below, or on the following links:
- Letter to to the FBI
- Letter to to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Letter from Sen. Chuck Grassley to FBI Director Christopher Wray
November 13, 2024
VIA ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION
The Honorable Christopher Wray
Director
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Dear Director Wray,
I write to you concerning the completeness and accuracy of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) national crime statistics. Last year, on October 16, 2023, the FBI published its 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics, which reported that, for crimes reported by state law enforcement, “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021.” However, almost one year later, the FBI, like a thief in the night, reportedly revised its figures with no public explanation, and the data now indicates that violent crime reported by state law enforcement agencies actually increased by about 4.5% during that time period.
Both the statistics and the timing of the FBI silently updating its publication are important as this misinformation was used during the 2024 election. For example, at a campaign event in Landover, Maryland on June 7, 2024, Vice President Harris touted, “You know, Donald Trump often likes to say violent crime is up under our administration, while, in fact, violent crime is now near a 50-year low.” The Harris campaign’s KAMALA HQ also fact-checked a clip of Trump claiming crime is up by posting, “Trump is lying. Last year violent crime fell to one of the lowest levels in more than 50 years.” These claims were most likely made in reliance on the FBI’s 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics, as those were the most recent statistics at that time.
Moreover, the FBI’s inaccurate data was used to fact-check the candidates during the presidential debate. For example, during the debate between candidates Trump and Harris, ABC moderator David Muir fact-checked President Trump’s claim regarding crime by using the FBI’s published data saying, “President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” President Trump replied, “The FBI – they were defrauding statements…It was a fraud.”
The updated figures now mirror the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey statistics, which show that the “violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022.” This significant discrepancy calls into question the reliability of the FBI’s data, its reports concerning national crime statistics, and the motivation behind the FBI not publicly announcing the updated data, given the revision occurred just weeks before the election and had been publicly relied upon.
By way of background, in 2021, the FBI changed how it collected national crime information by requiring all state law enforcement agencies to submit their crime data through the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). According to BJS, it partnered with the FBI to establish the “new set of statistical procedures to estimate crime,” but using “this new estimation process solely on NIBRS data introduced several challenges which the estimation process was designed to address.”
It is also concerning that as of the date of this letter the FBI’s 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics press release in October 2023 still contains the inaccurate statistics that “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021.” It appears the FBI is pushing misinformation to the public. With the recent release of the FBI’s 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics, the FBI must provide assurances to the American people that this information is complete, accurate, and reliable.
Questions for the FBI:
- Who approved the publication of the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics? Did BJS provide guidance, advice, or feedback, whether official or unofficial, related to the uncertainty or accuracy of the data collected and used for the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics? Provide all records.
- Explain, in detail, why the original 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics were inaccurate and subsequently updated. Why wasn’t an announcement made that the data was updated?
- When and how were the inaccuracies in the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics uncovered? Explain in detail and provide all records.
- Prior to its publication, were concerns raised about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or uncertainty in the estimation of the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics? Provide all records.
- Prior to its publication, were concerns raised about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or uncertainty in the estimation of the 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics? Provide all records.
- From January 2021 to the present, provide all records between and among BJS, FBI, and other Justice Department components related to the NIBRS transition and the accuracy of NIBRS-derived statistics.
- Who is responsible for determining when uncertainty in an estimation is deemed too high and should be withheld from publication? Explain, in detail, the process for reviewing and determining whether an estimation should be withheld from publication.
- Provide all policies, guidance, and similar documents related to the withholding of data when the uncertainty in a NIBRS estimation is deemed too high.
- Does the FBI plan to update its October 16, 2023, press release that still contains the inaccurate violent crime statistics? If not, why not?
- Did the FBI communicate with any media outlets regarding the revision of the incorrect 2022 data? If not, why not?
- Provide all records between and among the Justice Department, FBI, and White House relating to the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics.
Thank you for your prompt review and response. If you have any questions, please contact Brian Randolph or Jace Pimentel on my Committee staff at (202) 224-0642.
Sincerely,
Charles E. Grassley
Ranking Member
Committee on the Budget
Letter from Sen. Chuck Grassley to Acting BJS Director Kevin Scott
November 13, 2024
VIA ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION
Mr. Kevin Scott
Acting Director
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Dear Acting Director Scott,
I write to you concerning the completeness and accuracy of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) national crime statistics. On October 16, 2023, the FBI published its 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics, which reported that “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021.” However, almost one year later, the FBI reportedly revised its figures with no public explanation, and the data now indicates that violent crime reported by state law enforcement agencies actually increased by about 4.5% during that time period.
Both the statistics and the timing of the FBI silently updating its publication are important, as this misinformation was used during the 2024 election. For example, at a campaign event in Landover, Maryland, on June 7, 2024, Vice President Harris stated, “Donald Trump often likes to say violent crime is up under our administration, while, in fact, violent crime is now near a 50-year low.” These claims were most likely made in reliance on the FBI’s 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics, as those were the most recent statistics at that time.
Moreover, the FBI’s inaccurate data was used to fact-check candidates during the presidential debate. During the debate between Trump and Harris, ABC moderator David Muir fact-checked President Trump’s claim regarding crime using the FBI’s published data.
The updated figures now align with the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey, which shows that the “violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022.” This significant discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of the FBI’s data and the motivation behind the lack of a public announcement regarding the updated data.
Questions for the Bureau of Justice Statistics:
- Did BJS provide feedback or guidance on the accuracy of the 2022 Crime in the Nation Statistics before publication? Provide all records.
- Were concerns raised about the accuracy or reliability of the 2022 and 2023 statistics? Provide details and related records.
- From January 2021 to the present, provide all communications between BJS, the FBI, and other Justice Department components related to the NIBRS transition and its accuracy.
- Who determines when uncertainty in an estimate is too high for publication? Provide detailed policies or guidance on this process.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. If you have any questions, please contact Brian Randolph or Jace Pimentel on my Committee staff at (202) 224-0642.
Sincerely,
Charles E. Grassley
Ranking Member
Committee on the Budget
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