Stocks dropped for the third day in a row today (longest streak since early Sept) with the S&P's worst loss in seven weeks, as with a big h/t to Goldman, it seems equity market bulls finally noticed the recent explosion in rates.
Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming - 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
But, the recent 2-sigma move in rates (as we have seen) implies serious drawdowns for stocks...
...and the surge in rates (10Y +55bps in the last three weeks) suddenly hit stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
...and 'Trumpflation' has prompted a market-wide rethink of rate-cut expectations (lower/hawkish), especially for next year...
Source: Bloomberg
...and that all weighed on stocks bigly today. There was a small comeback after The Beige Book signaled some dovishness, but Nasdaq was the day's biggest loser (down over 2% at one point)...
A big down-day for mega-cap tech today...
Source: Bloomberg
All seven of the Mag7 stocks were down today - that is the first time that's happened since Sept 6th...
Source: Bloomberg
'Most Shorted' stocks were monkeyhammered lower...
Source: Bloomberg
Even the so-called 'Trump Trade' saw selling pressure today (though the "Democratic Victory' basket was hit even harder, so don't get all excited Kamala)...
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman's trading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up +5% vs the 10dma, with their floor basically paired Buy vs. Sell with HFs net to buy and LOs net for sale
-
HFs are +7% better to buy with Demand in Macro Products, Industrials & Tech offsetting supply in Fins, Utes & Comms Svcs
-
LOs are -2% better for sale. Tech supply from them outweighs supply in Staples and Cons Svcs by 3:1. Demand is led by Cons Disc, Mats & HCare.
Meanwhile, the dollar refuses to stop, rallying up to its strongest since early July against its fiat peers...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields are rising as fast as the dollar - also up to three month highs (all above 4.00%)...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar strength finally smacked gold lower today... but not before the precious metal hit a new intraday record high...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver underperformed gold on the day after a decent run against the barbarous relic...
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal also, with Bitcoin fading back towards $65,000....
Source: Bloomberg
After two strong days, oil prices slipped lower on an inventory build, higher crude production, and no extreme headlines out of the MidEast (yet)...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, prediction markets continue to trend in Trump's direction...
Source: Bloomberg
...and even the polls are starting to move in his favor (because there's only so much 'cheat' margin to play with).
Stocks dropped for the third day in a row today (longest streak since early Sept) with the S&P's worst loss in seven weeks, as with a big h/t to Goldman, it seems equity market bulls finally noticed the recent explosion in rates.
Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming - 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
But, the recent 2-sigma move in rates (as we have seen) implies serious drawdowns for stocks...
...and the surge in rates (10Y +55bps in the last three weeks) suddenly hit stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
...and 'Trumpflation' has prompted a market-wide rethink of rate-cut expectations (lower/hawkish), especially for next year...
Source: Bloomberg
...and that all weighed on stocks bigly today. There was a small comeback after The Beige Book signaled some dovishness, but Nasdaq was the day's biggest loser (down over 2% at one point)...
A big down-day for mega-cap tech today...
Source: Bloomberg
All seven of the Mag7 stocks were down today - that is the first time that's happened since Sept 6th...
Source: Bloomberg
'Most Shorted' stocks were monkeyhammered lower...
Source: Bloomberg
Even the so-called 'Trump Trade' saw selling pressure today (though the "Democratic Victory' basket was hit even harder, so don't get all excited Kamala)...
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman's trading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up +5% vs the 10dma, with their floor basically paired Buy vs. Sell with HFs net to buy and LOs net for sale
-
HFs are +7% better to buy with Demand in Macro Products, Industrials & Tech offsetting supply in Fins, Utes & Comms Svcs
-
LOs are -2% better for sale. Tech supply from them outweighs supply in Staples and Cons Svcs by 3:1. Demand is led by Cons Disc, Mats & HCare.
Meanwhile, the dollar refuses to stop, rallying up to its strongest since early July against its fiat peers...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields are rising as fast as the dollar - also up to three month highs (all above 4.00%)...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar strength finally smacked gold lower today... but not before the precious metal hit a new intraday record high...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver underperformed gold on the day after a decent run against the barbarous relic...
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal also, with Bitcoin fading back towards $65,000....
Source: Bloomberg
After two strong days, oil prices slipped lower on an inventory build, higher crude production, and no extreme headlines out of the MidEast (yet)...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, prediction markets continue to trend in Trump's direction...
Source: Bloomberg
...and even the polls are starting to move in his favor (because there's only so much 'cheat' margin to play with).