The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May - the smallest change since July 2022 - just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) - but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now...
Source: Bloomberg
Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM...(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.
Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
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May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022
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May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022
For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
Source: Bloomberg
The full breakdown...
Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004...
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM - its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%...
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump's term).
And prices have never been more expensive...
That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).
Source: Bloomberg
Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%...
Finally, while the 'flations' have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?
Source: Bloomberg
And is this guaranteed if Powell decides "insurance" cuts are required (for Biden?)
The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May - the smallest change since July 2022 - just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) - but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now...
Source: Bloomberg
Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM...(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.
Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
-
May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022
-
May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022
For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
Source: Bloomberg
The full breakdown...
Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004...
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM - its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%...
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump's term).
And prices have never been more expensive...
That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).
Source: Bloomberg
Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%...
Finally, while the 'flations' have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?
Source: Bloomberg
And is this guaranteed if Powell decides "insurance" cuts are required (for Biden?)